Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 9.682603 11.967481 14.533225 17.607273 21.168806 25.143836 29.893470
2025-12-28 6.596145 9.522812 13.197822 18.059864 24.224673 31.679531 41.265105
2026-01-04 4.835813 7.938786 12.200020 18.279664 26.510933 37.037892 51.260040
2026-01-11 3.737973 6.881628 11.547101 18.635029 28.750592 42.264462 61.221486
2026-01-18 3.011227 6.158345 11.164564 19.193946 31.170500 47.752155 71.724713
2026-01-25 2.293274 5.246819 10.296604 18.849818 32.171435 51.257286 79.645100
2026-02-01 1.845421 4.684023 9.863505 19.064522 33.933005 55.852968 89.227206
2026-02-08 1.421328 4.040304 9.161158 18.716191 34.740834 59.043506 96.899605
2026-02-15 1.071120 3.436983 8.407607 18.153068 35.105482 61.528775 103.594340
2026-02-22 0.904990 3.202716 8.311001 18.713108 37.310517 66.889945 114.734916
2026-03-01 0.702598 2.804278 7.803401 18.442353 38.068229 70.003002 122.582385
2026-03-08 0.562861 2.521462 7.483062 18.473188 39.319678 73.925922 131.788900
2026-03-15 0.387930 2.059139 6.688021 17.520907 38.854230 75.220335 137.267603
2026-03-22 0.316680 1.906591 6.600542 18.012960 41.067597 81.072384 150.248982
2026-03-29 0.249169 1.727127 6.402242 18.235181 42.778689 86.148725 162.172241
2026-04-05 0.199349 1.587354 6.275139 18.590071 44.754549 91.752219 175.142099
2026-04-12 0.164039 1.489389 6.241667 19.147949 47.154680 98.184066 189.684484
2026-04-19 0.117334 1.287980 5.848827 18.804470 47.719903 101.402744 198.991435
2026-04-26 0.090747 1.174468 5.697179 19.018770 49.421490 106.702561 211.951330
2026-05-03 0.063067 1.014489 5.343103 18.671095 49.915708 109.823669 221.298444
2026-05-10 0.041004 0.854768 4.932782 18.109039 49.894745 111.976243 229.031158
2026-05-17 0.032945 0.810372 4.940230 18.668017 52.338389 118.802136 245.067695
2026-05-24 0.021854 0.703442 4.663138 18.397775 52.922486 122.141360 255.094178